The Fed held off on a rate hike. Today's GDP and inflation reports could make waiting harder.

Markets are digesting a clear fed tight odds catalyst titled "The Fed held off on a rate hike. Today's GDP and inflation reports could make waiting harder". The facts on the ground are that the Fed held off on a rate hike. Today's GDP and inflation reports could make waiting harder.

Tighter-policy odds raise discount rates and compress multiples, especially in long-duration equities. High-duration tech and speculative growth usually take the first hit, while value and some financials can hold up better if the curve steepens for the right reasons. Hawkish surprises hit through yields first. Watch whether the 10Y confirms the narrative before assuming index damage is done. What happens next is whether markets validate auction demand and the next inflation print.