The Fed Is Impotent And Done Raising Rates

Markets are digesting a clear fed tight odds catalyst titled "The Fed Is Impotent And Done Raising Rates". The facts on the ground are that the Fed held rates steady, with little impact on inflation expectations as fuel prices remain the main inflation driver beyond monetary control. The facts on the ground are that i see the Fed as unlikely to hike again soon, expecting disinflation from higher long-term yields and slowing capex, especially in tech.

Tighter-policy odds raise discount rates and compress multiples, especially in long-duration equities. High-duration tech and speculative growth usually take the first hit, while value and some financials can hold up better if the curve steepens for the right reasons. Hawkish surprises hit through yields first. Watch whether the 10Y confirms the narrative before assuming index damage is done. What happens next is whether markets validate auction demand and the next inflation print.